The Value Chain Atlas

Where the money and the limit sit

Revenue: Raw materials, about 70 percent of in-chain revenue.
Profit: Raw materials, about 97 percent of in-chain profit at a 39 percent midpoint margin; custom smelters ran near zero.
Binds: At the mine. Spot treatment charges went negative in 2024/25, the Grasberg mud rush cut Freeport to 640 million lbs in the fourth quarter from 1.0 billion, and ICSG cut 2026 mine growth to 1.6 percent.

Two builds of the anchor

USD 290 bn from the companies
USD 223 bn from agency statistics

The house anchor is the agency build, USGS mine tonnage at the LME price. The company build runs 30 percent higher on realized prices above LME and traded metal.

Where the money and the limit sit

Revenue: Processed materials, about 79 percent of in-chain revenue.
Profit: Raw materials, about 86 percent of in-chain profit at a 35 percent midpoint margin; the mills ran near breakeven at the midpoint.
Binds: At electrical steel. About 90 percent of US high grade GOES is imported, Cleveland-Cliffs meets 12 to 20 percent of US demand, and large power transformer lead times averaged about 30 months in H1 2025.

Two builds of the anchor

USD 3,446 bn from the companies
USD 1,921 bn from agency statistics

The house anchor is the agency build, World Steel tonnage at the world export unit value. Company revenue per tonne runs 79 percent higher on downstream and high value products.

Where the money and the limit sit

Revenue: Raw materials, about 69 percent of in-chain revenue.
Profit: Raw materials, about 69 percent of in-chain profit at a 31 percent midpoint margin.
Binds: At the Gulf export routes in 2026, where shut ins peaked at 10.9 million b/d, and at drillable inventory. Brent averaged USD 114 in September 2026.

Two builds of the anchor

USD 3,666 bn from the companies
USD 3,244 bn from agency statistics

The two builds agree within 13 percent, so the company build is the house anchor.

Where the money and the limit sit

Revenue: Owners and operators, about 52 percent of in-chain revenue.
Profit: Owners and operators, about 58 percent of in-chain profit at a 30 percent midpoint margin.
Binds: At LNG compressor trains, lump sum EPC capacity and federal approvals, and in 2026 at Hormuz, where over 10 Bcf/d of Qatar centered supply, a fifth of the world's, was disrupted.

Two builds of the anchor

USD 166 bn from the companies
USD 145 bn from agency statistics

The two builds agree within 14 percent, so the company build is the house anchor.

Where the money and the limit sit

Revenue: Services and aftermarket, about 56 percent of in-chain revenue.
Profit: Services and aftermarket, about 59 percent of in-chain profit at a 14 percent midpoint margin.
Binds: At gas turbine and compressor trains for LNG and power, where Baker Hughes IET holds USD 32.4 billion of RPO, over two years of revenue. Land services do not bind; rigs averaged 1,818.

Two builds of the anchor

USD 219 bn from the companies
USD 297 bn from agency statistics

The builds differ by 26 percent. Both use a judged international to US ratio, but build one rests on printed company revenue, so it is the house anchor.

Where the money and the limit sit

Revenue: Equipment makers, about 32 percent of in-chain revenue.
Profit: Raw materials, about 30 percent of in-chain profit at a 39 percent midpoint margin; the cable makers follow at 28 percent, carried by high voltage.
Binds: At HV and EHV factory capacity and 525 kV HVDC qualification, then at cable laying vessels. Prysmian holds a EUR 17 billion transmission backlog and NKT EUR 10.2 billion.

Two builds of the anchor

USD 97 bn from the companies
USD 76 bn from agency statistics

The house anchor is the agency build from Eurostat production and trade ratios. The company build rests on a judged coverage share and runs 27 percent higher.

Where the money and the limit sit

Revenue: Equipment makers, about 32 percent of in-chain revenue; the contractors who install the gear take as much.
Profit: Equipment makers, about 49 percent of in-chain profit at a 21 percent midpoint margin.
Binds: At large transformer factory and test capacity, with GOES, bushings (up to 130 weeks) and tap changers (80 to 90 weeks) behind it. The average wait was 30 months in H1 2025, up to 60.

Two builds of the anchor

USD 261 bn from the companies
USD 120 bn from agency statistics

The house anchor is the agency build from production and trade. The raw company sum is already 19 percent above it before scaling, so the judged coverage share cannot hold.

Where the money and the limit sit

Revenue: Equipment makers, about 45 percent of in-chain revenue.
Profit: Equipment makers, about 51 percent of in-chain profit at a 17 percent midpoint margin; services earn 28 percent downstream.
Binds: At heavy duty gas turbine slots and the single crystal castings behind them. GE Vernova ordered 29.8 GW and sold 15.3 GW in 2025, and held 43 GW of slot reservations.

Two builds of the anchor

USD 95 bn from the companies
USD 85 bn from agency statistics

The two builds agree within 11 percent, so the company build is the house anchor.

Where the money and the limit sit

Revenue: Equipment makers, about 40 percent of in-chain revenue.
Profit: Equipment makers, about 51 percent of in-chain profit at a 19 percent midpoint margin.
Binds: At chiller, CDU and CRAH output and at UPS and switchgear assembly. Vertiv's fourth quarter book to bill was about 2.9, and Munters booked 13,889 MSEK of data center orders against 5,906 MSEK of sales.

Two builds of the anchor

USD 50 bn from the companies
USD 35 bn from agency statistics

The builds differ by 42 percent. The company build has one judged input against two for the agency build, so it is the house anchor.

Where the money and the limit sit

Revenue: Equipment makers, about 41 percent of in-chain revenue.
Profit: Equipment makers, about 48 percent of in-chain profit at a 24 percent midpoint margin; control software at the subsystem step earns 36 percent.
Binds: At precision reducers, rare earth magnets and power semiconductors for robots and drives, and at integration labor. No lead time is stated in the documents read.

Two builds of the anchor

USD 165 bn from the companies
USD 199 bn from agency statistics

The two builds agree within 17 percent, so the company build is the house anchor. The agency build rests on judged shares.

Where the money and the limit sit

Revenue: Equipment makers, about 48 percent of in-chain revenue; components are 70 percent of their cost.
Profit: Equipment makers, about 50 percent of in-chain profit at a 26 percent midpoint margin; the components step takes 47 percent.
Binds: At accelerators and advanced packaging, with high bandwidth memory and indium phosphide laser chips next. Dell entered fiscal 2027 with a USD 43 billion AI server backlog.

Two builds of the anchor

USD 342 bn from the companies
USD 324 bn from agency statistics

The two builds agree within 6 percent, so the company build is the house anchor. Foxconn's row rests on a wire report and is Indicative.

Where the money and the limit sit

Revenue: Components, about 85 percent of in-chain revenue.
Profit: Components, about 88 percent of in-chain profit at a 28 percent midpoint margin; NVIDIA earned about 60 percent.
Binds: At TSMC 3nm and 5nm lines, CoWoS packaging and HBM. NVIDIA carries USD 95.2 billion of supply commitments, and Intel said its supply would bottom in the first quarter of 2026.

Two builds of the anchor

USD 429 bn from the companies
USD 384 bn from agency statistics

The two builds agree within 12 percent, so the company build is the house anchor.

Where the money and the limit sit

Revenue: Components, about 84 percent of in-chain revenue.
Profit: Components, about 92 percent of in-chain profit at a 29 percent midpoint margin; SK hynix earned 58 percent in the fourth quarter.
Binds: At HBM stacking and qualification and at DRAM cleanroom space. Micron's first Idaho fab outputs from 2027, and SK hynix is building its first Yongin fab.

Two builds of the anchor

USD 232 bn from the companies
USD 230 bn from agency statistics

The builds agree within 1 percent. The coverage share comes from named omitted makers, but it lands within a point of the ratio the circularity screen flags, so the pair is not counted.

Where the money and the limit sit

Revenue: Equipment makers, about 47 percent of in-chain revenue.
Profit: Equipment makers, about 61 percent of in-chain profit at a 27 percent midpoint margin; subsystem suppliers earn 7.
Binds: At EUV, where ASML recognized 48 systems in 2025 on single source optics from ZEISS and lasers from TRUMPF, and at construction, where SEMI counts 20 new 300mm fab starts in 2026.

Two builds of the anchor

USD 142 bn from the companies
USD 135 bn from agency statistics

The two builds agree within 5 percent, so the company build is the house anchor; Lam is counted at systems revenue.

Where the money and the limit sit

Revenue: Owners and operators, about 57 percent of in-chain revenue.
Profit: Owners and operators, about 63 percent of in-chain profit at a 25 percent midpoint margin; the components they buy earn 28 percent.
Binds: At accelerators and grid power. DOE projects data centers at 6.7 to 12 percent of US electricity by 2028, from 4.4 percent in 2023, and Vertiv's USD 15.0 billion backlog shows power gear behind orders.

Two builds of the anchor

USD 357 bn from the companies
USD 380 bn from agency statistics

The two builds agree within 6 percent, so the company build is the house anchor. Microsoft enters at Azure's printed floor of USD 75 billion.

Where the money and the limit sit

Revenue: Owners and operators, about 46 percent of in-chain revenue.
Profit: Owners and operators, about 42 percent of in-chain profit at a 15 percent midpoint margin.
Binds: On energized megawatts. CoreWeave had about 3.1 GW contracted against more than 850 MW active at the end of 2025, and Microsoft was about 67 percent of its 2025 revenue.

Two builds of the anchor

USD 55 bn from the companies
USD 59 bn from agency statistics

The two builds agree within 7 percent, so the company build is the house anchor. Nebius enters at its core segment only.

Where the money and the limit sit

Revenue: Engineering and construction, about 41 percent of in-chain revenue.
Profit: Engineering and construction, about 45 percent of in-chain profit at a 12 percent midpoint margin.
Binds: At craft labor. Quanta's backlog reached a record USD 44.0 billion and Comfort Systems' doubled to USD 11.94 billion, while US electrical contractor employment grew about 1 percent.

Two builds of the anchor

USD 556 bn from the companies
USD 445 bn from agency statistics

The builds are 25 percent apart, at the edge of tolerance; both are US scope, Census and BLS for the agency build. The company build is the house anchor.

Where the money and the limit sit

Revenue: Owners and operators, about 61 percent of in-chain revenue.
Profit: Owners and operators, about 70 percent of in-chain profit at a 21 percent midpoint margin; major IOU net operating income rose to USD 89.9 billion from 78.8.
Binds: At gas turbine and transformer slots and construction crews, which cap rate base growth, and at the commission, which caps bills. The average residential price rose 4.6 percent to 17.23 cents.

Two builds of the anchor

USD 397 bn from the companies
USD 376 bn from agency statistics

The two builds agree within 6 percent, so the company build is the house anchor; the agency build is EIA retail revenue.

Where the money and the limit sit

Revenue: Owners and operators, about 60 percent of in-chain revenue.
Profit: Owners and operators, about 46 percent of in-chain profit at a 9 percent midpoint margin; fuel suppliers take much of the rest.
Binds: At gas turbine slots, then at federal and state approval of fleet sales. Constellation and Calpine together hold 55 GW, and NRG about 25 GW after LS Power.

Two builds of the anchor

USD 155 bn from the companies
USD 186 bn from agency statistics

Build one counts generation revenue only; build two is EIA IPP generation at USD 94.63 per MWh. They agree within 17 percent, so the company build is the house anchor.

Where the money and the limit sit

Revenue: Owners and operators, about 57 percent of in-chain revenue.
Profit: Owners and operators, about 63 percent of in-chain profit at a 18 percent midpoint margin; enrichment and fuel earn 35 percent.
Binds: At enrichment and conversion outside Russia, and at HALEU for advanced reactors. Four enrichers serve the world, and the SWU price paid by US operators rose 11 percent to USD 108.70 in 2025.

Two builds of the anchor

USD 203 bn from the companies
USD 158 bn from agency statistics

The builds differ by 29 percent. Build one's coverage share is measured as a share of world nuclear output while build two rests on a judged price, so build one is the house anchor.